Assessing the effectiveness and accuracy of tools used by disaster management institutions in predicting natural hazards in Zambia from 2012 to 2022.

The effectiveness and accuracy of tools used by disaster management institutions

Abstract

The objectives of the study were to review the types and accuracy of tools, to detect and predict occurrences of natural hazards by the disaster management institutions. The study employed a descriptive research design. It employed a mixed research method which comprises of both primary and secondary sources of data. Three institutions, including the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, Zambia Meteorological Department and Zambia Red Cross Society were purposively selected and engaged for this study. The results indicated that the main tools used in monitoring and predicting natural hazards are Contingency planning tool, Response and Recovery Plans, Emergency Plan of Action, Early Action Protocols and Rain Gauge, while the models include Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), Impact-based Focusing, Flash Flood Guidance System, Forecast General Circulation of wind system and United Kingdom models but only placed in selected districts. Since it was established that the tools are not distributed and installed in all districts; places without disaster monitoring such tools are exposed to unobserved disaster risks. The study also established that the tools are effective and accurate but to only some extent of 77% accuracy on average. It, therefore, drew a conclusion that the tools used by the three institutions are 77% effective and accurate on average.  At this level (77%) of effectiveness and accuracy, detection and prediction of disaster risks occurrence is sure though without an indication of exact location and magnitude of where the disaster will occur from. It was further concluded that, since tools are not distributed and installed in all districts, areas without installed tools are at higher risk and in danger of disaster exposure due to lack of detection and early warning. Finally, the study recommended high-resolution tools such as Light Detection and Ranging, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Water Supply Index, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to be installed in all districts in Zambia for full the coverage of disaster risk detection for the effective and accurate early warning of hazards.